Eutelsat: Growth slowing down?
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ThE MaStEr
2012-05-07
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Eutelsat: Growth slowing down?
Eutelsat will unveil its Q3 numbers on May 10, and the satellite operator’s revenues are expected to be around €315 million (up about 6.5 per cent on last year). Eutelsat is expected to say that its planned ‘accelerated growth’ for this financial year (to June 30) is working according to plan.
However, the market will be looking for much firmer guidance on some key issues facing Eutelsat. First up will be the state of play for its March re-negotiations of its important multi-usage business. This sector has been growing at a terrific rate (30+ per cent CAGR, says a note to clients from investment banker Morgan Stanley). But a slowdown in US governmental and military video demand might well be affecting current and future business. Morgan Stanley says that it expects this past growth to slow to – a still valuable – 8 per cent CAGR rate over the next three years. “[Eutelsat’s] management seems to be drawing attention to this, suggesting that it will likely not materially outperform this year’s guidance and could even struggle to meet it,” adds the bank’s note.
Morgan Stanley also says that Eutelsat’s important Ka-Sat ‘high throughput’ broadband satellite is only slowly being deployed and taken up, and this is of some concern in what is an expensive capital investment.
The bank also seems to sense a much more cautious tone as to future revenues “which is extremely rare” says the bank. “This leads us to believe that a small cut to this year’s guidance is not inconceivable. We continue to believe that despite slower multi-usage, ETL can make our and consensus revenue expectations of €1240m this year (guidance is €1235m).”
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